With the handover to an Iraqi government scheduled for June, the United States is suddenly fighting a half-dozen wars on three fronts in Iraq. As the Washington Post's Anthony Shadid and Sewell Chan report, the American forces on the ground are suddenly faced with two military flare-ups -- one in Fallujah, where Sunni Arabs and former Baath loyalists struck out last week, and in Baghdad and points south, where young followers of Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr erupted into violence in four cities this weekend.
Paul Bremer, the U.S. administrator for Iraq, has apparently been counseled to deal forcefully with both confrontations. The U.S. Marines have surrounded Fallujah, and Sadr has been declared an outlaw by the Coalition Provisional Authority. But even quelling both of these urgent and dangerous outbreaks -- both of which have been half-ignored for months -- the Coalition and the Bush administration face further conflicts.
Time is not on the Bush administration's side, which will reignite the tension between those who want to do the right thing in Iraq and those who want to do the politically expedient thing. Several countries, including Spain, will be pulling troops out this summer; the United Nations is only mildly committal; NATO deferred on Iraq last week, noting that it had barely a proper foothold in Afghanistan and was struggling to make ends meet. Finding an international political solution that provides for security, stability and the ability to plan reconstruction -- and to do it soon -- is Bush's greatest challenge.
Meanwhile, the transfer of power scheduled for June is likely to be delayed, further inflaming even well-intentioned Iraqis. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani (who is at odds with Sadr, lest you think the Shiia's are united) has called into question the legitimacy of any future government seated without elections. And back at home, criticism of the Bush team's policies are sharpening.
During the week ahead, the military response in Fallujah and to Sadr's Shiite protests will define in clear terms how well Bush and the CPA will be able to tackle their other battles.
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