Richmond's Next Mayor: Six Candidates Walk Into A Bar...

It should come as no surprise to long-time Richmonders -- or recent transplants who work as corporate lawyers, private developers or senior executives for Fortune 500 companies -- that the race for Richmond's next mayor is largely populated by establishment candidates.

What's different this time around -- the last time being the 2004 election of Doug Wilder as Richmond's first popularly elected mayor -- is that there is a candidate for every establishment. Including the old school alternative community.

(Apologies to Paul Goldman, who doesn't really fit neatly into any mold. If anything, Goldman is the anti-Franco's candidate what with his rumpled shirts and slack hanging neckties.)

Although the final roster of candidates won't be known until June 10 -- the filing deadline -- it looks like Richmond will have as many as four candidates who fit somewhat neatly into one of Richmond's traditional political communities. Here's my off-the-cuff take at the moment on the six people who have declared or are expected to declare soon:

Dirtwoman -- My mother-in-law didn't know who Dirtwoman is, but every hipster between the ages of 30 and 50 does. His/her candidacy is more than a bit of a lark, but Richmond.com did do a sit-down interview with Donnie Corker earlier this month. Why vote for Dirtwoman? From Richmond.com's interview: "Because I think we need a change here in Richmond. There's too much mudslinging. The other day up on Broad Street, there was a poor lady and she tells me, 'Sir, do you please have money to buy me something to eat?' I took the last $5 I had in my pocket and gave it to her ... I'm a good person. I'm for the people, not for one person, for the all people and [if] I do get elected, I will help the School Board out. I won't fight them. I will help City Council too." Thanks, Donnie. They need all the help they can get these days.

Paul Goldman -- Is it a stretch to suggest that Goldman and Dennis Kucinich were separated at birth? The second smartest guy running, Goldman is also the savviest man in the race having honed his political chops over two decades as the Cardinal Richelieu to Doug Wilder's Louis XIII. Sadly, Goldman has been unable to land his obvious smarts in a way that leaves the public wanting more. He's destined to be one of those individuals who does pushes the right dials and never receives the credit he may deserve. Goldman is likely to siphon off votes from Pantele from people who actually pay attention to policies and campaign promises, but don't count on him to win a single district.

Robert Grey -- The best dressed, and perhaps best prepared, candidate in the race suffers one significant handicap in that he is hands-down the guy Richmond's corporate community wants to redecorate Wilder's current office. That handicap is actually erased to a large degree by the fact that Grey is virtually unknown to the white voters who dominate four of Richmond's nine districts. To them, Grey will have the appeal of Barrack Obama -- times five. Grey is gracious to an extreme in social settings, and may well be the smartest, best prepared candidate in the race. He'll score points for his poise and his policy statements, and you can count on his old friend Doug Wilder to help him pull a few more districts into his corner. Out of the gate, Grey is the one candidate who can stitch together a win in a majority of the nine districts without breaking a sweat. For better or for worse, he's going to set the bar for this race.

Dwight Jones -- Former Chairman of the Richmond School Board (though who wants to tout that, these days?) and current state delegate representing parts of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield, Jones represents the black political class of Richmond at its best. It doesn't hurt that he's also know as the Rev. Dwight Jones, and his congregation at First Baptist Church is one of the largest in South Richmond. I'm not convinced that Jones has the political chops to distinguish himself in this rowdy field of candidates -- or the vision to stand apart.

Bill Pantele -- The Bill Richardson of Richmond politics only in the sense that Pantele comes across as a genuinely nice, somewhat distracted fellow who is always a few minutes late to every engagement. It seems sweet, and then it registers that VCU's Eugene Trani exudes a very similar vibe until you feel the cold steel shiv slide between your ribs. Metaphorically, of course. Bill will play well with the Fan District he represents on City Council and the many developers who have contributed graciously to his campaign war chests over the years. Unfortunately for Pantele, no one else really knows who he is. Or much cares, even if they should. There's that Bill Richardson comparison again. He hasn't declared, but his candidacy seems likely. He may take New Mexico, and get a handful of delegates in Michigan.

Lawrence Williams -- If at first you don't succeed. Williams has taken a run at the mayor's office, as well as several attempts at a City Council seat, but the architect seems undeterred. He's the one candidate I know the least about, which probably means he's the one candidate everyone else knows the least about. When you're running against two political powers (relatively speaking), a gadfly and a transsexual, being the nice guy isn't going to land you many votes. Here's a bit from Williams' chat with Richmond.com earlier in May: "Oftentimes, people look at electability. I think mine represents electability plus, the plus dealing with very technical issues and management issues, like the baseball Diamond. That should have been negotiated on a conference table over a year and half ago. I had contact with architects on that, and many thought the scale was inappropriate for Shockoe Bottom and others felt the Boulevard was not the greatest priority for the city ... What I represent is more of a management style for a mayor. Most mayors in the past 30 or 40 years have been somewhat politically-oriented in terms of how to get elected, but I want to take Richmond politics and move it forward so we can begin to look at task force politics as opposed to banquet or social politics." It seems to me that Williams will be hoping to benefit from Dwight Jones' presence in the race. The flip side? He's the one person I could see coming out of nowhere to snatch a slim majority in the race.

Comments

[בחירות לעירייה לראשות העיר למועצת עיריית ראשון לציון]

All that an elected Mayor could do would be exactly the same. Belive me, I am dead against congestion charging - in fact I was the person who proposed that the Council reject it in the first place! But I am also dead against a Mayor because of the loss of democratic accountability and the sky high cost. It will make not one jot of difference on congestion charging. Please don’t be fooled.

[John]

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest a couple of things that I think will fall in Grey's favor. First off, I think the black community in Richmond is more diverse than it has been in years -- and that while the power of the black churches and the Crusade for Voters remains strong, it is nowhere near as cohesive and formidable as it was two decades ago. Secondly, I expect turnout for this race to be off the charts -- with more than a half-dozen candidates knocking on doors; a highly engaged group of weblog and MSM observers; and the candidacy of Barack Obama, I won't be shocked to see the highest turnout in a general election in decades. I think that plays in the favor of two or three candidates, Grey among them. I also think that Paul Goldman is going to ultimately make a play for the districts that more mainstream candidates like Pantele and Grey are weaker in. Runoff election, anyone? I've not figured out which horse I'm for in this race (I do know which ones I'm decidedly against), but it's going to be a fun fall.

For the most part, I agree with your predictions, except for the one for Robert Grey. I can recall incidents of being in the far West End and telling white people my name (my last name is Gray) and they would ask if I am related to Robert Grey. Yes, I do think that he's what the corporate electorate would want, but at the same time, I think that he's done enough that the whites who are politically-savvy in Richmond know who he is. He was past President of the ABA, a former Dean at the law school of Washington and Lee and currently working at Hunton & Williams (needless to say, a very influential law firm in Richmond). So he is certainly a formidable candidate. Also, having Wilder as a friend does not hurt. The only thing I would worry about is the opposite of what you state--him not appealing to black voters in Richmond. The latest statistics of Richmond's demographics that I've read indicated that that the black population is still dominate in numbers compared to other races. Perhaps things have changed. Councilwoman McQuinn was recently heard stating that she and her crowd will "destroy" Grey. He is a threat to Jones (who is not very appealing to white voters nor to the corporate crowd) therefore may thrwart Jones' effort to become Mayor of Richmond. So, I would predict that the Crusade for Voters crowd as well as associates of Jones and Sen. Marsh will come out swinging and use everything that they can to suggest that Grey isn't "black" enough, therefore not push for anything that would help the black community.

[James Flames]

Hold off on the marching just yet. Robert Grey Jr, my guy I must admit, has not even announced his candidacy. I have yet to see a Goldman, Williams website or piece of literature so I really can't pass judgement on non existent policy. My opinion, worth about 2 cents, is that all of these candidates , excluding Williams and Grey, have stains all over them from rolling around in the muck we call Richmond politics. Robert Grey Jr IMO is the fresh new face we need in Richmond.

[John]

I got nervous every time I see a comment by "Bill" that it's Pantele.

[John]

Bill - My point was that in your first post you said in almost the same breath that the only thing that matters is social position and that Goldman (who represents anything but that) would finish in the top tier. That implies to me that social position matters less than you suggest. I would agree that we are at a time (in Richmond and nationally) where we don't suffer glad-handing fools and superficial politicians as much as we did four or eight years ago. That said, Goldman has a lot of work to do to convince voters that he has the same substance that his ideas do.

[bill]

not so new john, goldman represents change/reform, everyone else is status quo. goldman is about policy while everyone else about personality. over the past 3-1/2 years i think many of the social bound/climbing have overdosed on the politics of personality versus the politics of policy. that should favor goldman. goldman finishing in the top half is an easy bet for me. wanta wager 25 cents?

[Tobacco Row]

Accomplishments? Leadership? Surely you jest. What exactly has Council done under Pantele that makes you think it will move the city ahead? Look at the Council highlights from Quarter 1 - http://www.ci.richmond.va.us/citizen/city_gov/docs/ccReport_FirstQuarter_2008.pdf They got a few things through the legislature but done nothing about them yet, they list some traffic issues, they accepted money for crime fighting grants, and as one of their accomplishments they list they held their regular and committee meetings! They are supposed to do those anyway - they list it as an accomplishment?!?! I'm not sure the city can take too much of that "leadership."

[W&M Alum]

Turk, Pantele is the biggest smoke blower there is! I've sat in on many a meeting with him, and some with you present as well, and it's always the same old feel good crap with little to no action. Governance should involve active participation by its constituents, but this guy needs to be walked through everything by the hand. He has zero foresight and is always addressing things a day late and a buck short. What we don't need: an underachieving grandstander from a ring-knocker "college" who's always trying to play both sides and every angle. Fortune favors the bold, that which Pantele is not. ****Bonus points for anyone who can tell me what exactly Pantele practices at the "Law Offices of William J. Pantele", 801 East Main Street!!! HINT: most lawyers that don't/can't/won't practice couldn't cut it intellectually or are just too lazy but had the good fortune of mom and dad paying for their degree

[John]

Nope, not so new to Richmond. I'm curious though -- if it is all about social group, how in the world do you imagine Goldman will finish in the top half? I agree that Goldman will be an issue-centric candidate, and I also think the old story of Richmond being run by a handful of white powerbrokers or a network of social cliques is only as strong as you want it to be.

[bill]

the article was entertaining and enjoyable although i dont think williams will get to a majority. posted by john is wondering about issues instead of personalities. john must be new to richmond cause here it is always about your social group, or the social group you are climbing to. that is the issue goldman is the only change/reform candidate. all of the others are bullshit status quo. i look for goldman to finish in the top half of candidates, way ahead of williams.

[Parker]

Bill Pantele is a wolf in sheep's clothing. I've been to too many city/neighborhood meetings where Blowhard Bill got up a went on his usual vague rants all the while with a smirk on his face. I felt like he was trying to sell everyone a used car instead of addressing the concerns of and really caring about the citizens of the city. It was really sad to hear the eyes role when he spoke. To hear the negative chatter about Pantele after these meetings was disheartening. It seems like he cares more about his handshakes with the business elite and his own pockets (and property he owns). He's a bullshitter that likes to keep everyone quite while he's involved in closed doors meetings in deciding the future of the city. It saddens me that we have very little honorable options here. Let's wipe the shit out of our city government.

[Turk Sties]

Interesting article and enjoyable but...I am baffled by some of your comments and up front I readily admit I support my current councilman, Bill Pantele, for mayor. My question to you and your readers is: By what measure do you decide who is best prepared? In our fractious and dysfunctional city government, Bill has lead a City Council that has shown maturity and selflessness while facing an often openly hostile and uncooperative administration. This council now often reaches 8-1 agreement on ordinances and resolutions. Imagine how well the administration might operate if lead by someone who has a long practice of working cooperatively with City Council. My idea of well-prepared is for a candidate to have experience with and detailed understanding of the budget, economic development, regional partnerships, and the concerns of and conditions in all 9 council districts. Voters will have all sorts of reasons for favoring a candidate, but come November, I hope most will vote for the candidate they think has the most relevant experience and who has demonstrated the ability to lead a city government.

[John]

Scott - I wouldn't exactly call this analysis. Maybe late night ramblings. Or bullshit conventional wisdom. We're not even a day into this campaign -- count on both journalists and bloggers to spend a lot of time between June and November doing more of what you hate (flippant, off-the-cuff, conventional, trite, bullshit opinionating) and some of what you consistently demand (hard questions, good analysis, pushing and pressuring).

[Scott Burger]

I can't say I think much of this analysis. I would like the Mayor's race to be more about actual issues rather than personalities or anecdotal judgments. But I sadly admit, I may be in the minority. If you are just going to rephrase the same bullshit 'conventional wisdom' that the corporate media gives us, then your "off the cuff" blog does nothing to help real debate come forward. While he has always had something to say, Goldman's press releases contain some real policy announcements that I have not seen from any of the other candidates. And yet I don't hear any journalists or bloggers challenging the other candidates to release their own statements. For example, how will Dwight Jones, Robert Grey, or Lawrence Williams handle the needed stormwater utility? The impending SECOND round of lawsuits over ADA noncompliance? The bottomless money pit called Center Stage? Hello?